This has been my personal blog for sometime and since the founding of PodTech over a year ago I haven't been posting. Since Dave Winer has been busting my chops about not having a personal blog and the fact he just linked to me here I will try to post more often. I'm at gnomedex for the biggest blogger conference (now podcasting conference) where I can see old and new industry friends.
Dave Hornik writes that he's afraid of another bubble. My take is that the perception about a bubble is real but misunderstood. Fact: we are in a post correction cycle yes, but throughout history, with each important major change in underlying technology, we've seen massive growth. This growth has been experienced by a redefinition of technology causing growth in new segments that outpaces the "old" and more importantly changes the competitive landscape. Some people understand this other don't. People who don't call it a bubble.
Carlota Perez has some great research that highlights what we're going through.
From the Industrial Revolution to the Information Age, there has been a consistent pattern in the diffusion of technological revolutions and their impact on macroeconomic trends, according to Carlota Perez, a scholar of technology and socioeconomic development at Cambridge University’s Endowment for Research in Finance.
The core radical innovations come first. Their extraordinary success spawns a vast wave of interrelated investment, as happened with mass-produced cars and electrified homes in the 1910s and 1920s, and with PCs and digital telecommunications in the 1980s and 1990s.
This is what she terms the Installation Period, lasting 20 to 30 years and ending in a speculative financial boom. The collapse of this bubble leads to a necessary correction. What comes next are two or three decades of what Perez calls the Deployment Period. This is when the new technology platform is fully applied and woven into the fabric of business and society.
In Perez’s analysis, the intense exploratory investment made during the dot-com frenzy of the late 1990s is likely to be the precursor of a prolonged period of sustained global expansion and growth, with information technology as the engine.inks it's a bubble. As far as investors are concerned the old motto: buyer beware is in effect.
You know when your on an 'upswing' in entrepreneurship when people are partying while working on great stuff. Techcrunch has been having these informal get togethers with entrepreneurs, investor, and anyone interested. This is the example of 'what Steve Forbes says in my latest podcast...our new golden years".
Nice work Mike Arrington and Keith Teare! Next time I'll be in town for the next meetup and we'll podcast the hell out of it!
Not so fast Mr Feld... Don't count out Yahoo and even eBay... I do agree about Microsoft but across the board the "arms buildup" has been accumulating for many months now for the big guys. You will see some massive shifts in the next 18 months from big players with big assets. Yahoo can't build their parking lot big enough and when they do they fill it up with cars... and they just got the best place to work award. Then there is eBay...a company that may be written down in history as the comapny that came from Pez dispensers to most likely being the largest infrastructure provider in the Web 4.0 environment controlling all the worlds online transcations. Hell here is even a rumor that Google may pay cash for VeriSign and take over the domanin system (not a rumor that is what I would do..and get some transaction infrastructure in the meantime)
So you have the big 4: Microsoft, Yahoo, Ebay, and Google all will make massive moves this year. As their cards hit the table the future will be clearer.
I've been involved in a few discussions with folks about podcasting and the direction. It's interesting to see how people view podcasting and other new media trends. People generally fall into the classic two camps: part of the solution or part of the problem.
The real question is who's working on making the user experience better or developing innovation and new technology to bring on mainstream users. As we hit the 10 years of the web or Web 2.0 - Podcasting is really only barely 1.0.
There is so much more to podcasting than meets the eye.
I spent my formative years at HP from 1988-1997 and Lew Platt took over the helm from John Young and turn HP from an 8 billion dollar company to over 35b when I left. He was from the east coast where I am from and he was the classic HP manager.
He will be missed and remembered to transforming HP from a dying minicomputer company to a computer products company in just a few short years with household brand names like the LaserJet and Deskjet (and many more). Lew will be viewed by all as upholding and promoting the HP Way.