Not so fast Mr Feld... Don't count out Yahoo and even eBay... I do agree about Microsoft but across the board the "arms buildup" has been accumulating for many months now for the big guys. You will see some massive shifts in the next 18 months from big players with big assets. Yahoo can't build their parking lot big enough and when they do they fill it up with cars... and they just got the best place to work award. Then there is eBay...a company that may be written down in history as the comapny that came from Pez dispensers to most likely being the largest infrastructure provider in the Web 4.0 environment controlling all the worlds online transcations. Hell here is even a rumor that Google may pay cash for VeriSign and take over the domanin system (not a rumor that is what I would do..and get some transaction infrastructure in the meantime)
So you have the big 4: Microsoft, Yahoo, Ebay, and Google all will make massive moves this year. As their cards hit the table the future will be clearer.